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Trading businesses were asked how their turnover in January 2026 compared with December 2025, leaving out any seasonal trading. Data are plotted in the middle of the duration of each wave. Almost a 3rd (31%) of trading services reported that their turnover had actually decreased in January 2026 compared to the previous month.

However, the movements are broadly in line with those observed around this time in previous years, with peaks in December followed by small falls in January. The industries with the greatest percentage reporting that turnover decreased in January 2026 were: the lodging and food service activities market (52%, which is a 21 portion point rise from December 2025) the other services industry (45%) the arts, entertainment and recreation industry (40%) Around 16% of trading services reported that their turnover increased in January 2026, which was a 3 portion point boost compared with December 2025.

For trading services with 10 or more staff members, 33% reported that their turnover had reduced, which was broadly stable compared with December and January 2025. More than one in five (23%) services reported that their turnover had actually increased, up 2 percentage points compared to December 2025. Generally, the proportion of businesses reporting that their turnover increased correlated to the size of the business.

The exception to this was the proportion for services with 250 or more staff members, which was 25%, and 5 percentage points lower than December 2025 (30%). Trading organizations were asked how they expect their turnover to alter in the coming month. This can then be used to forecast how the company's turnover will in fact change once that calendar month concludes.

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Trends in between predicted turnover and real turnover have actually broadly moved in the exact same instructions, the movements for expectations tend to be bigger. Caution needs to be taken when interpreting expectations concerns, as the staff members reacting on behalf of services may not have full oversight of all of their company's future expectations.

ANSR July UK PRs

More than one in five (21%) trading companies anticipate their turnover to increase in March 2026. This is a 6 percentage point increase from February 2026 however was broadly steady compared to expectations for March 2025 (22%). The percentage of trading companies anticipating an increase in January 2026 was 13%, while the proportion that reported a real boost in turnover in January 2026 was 16%, recommending a slight pessimism in companies expectations.

The trends have broadly followed each other because the concerns were presented in April 2022. The results for March 2026 follow the trend from previous years, with the portion of companies expecting turnover to increase peaking after a reduction in January. Larger services were more likely to anticipate a boost in turnover in March, with the percentage ranging from 20% for organizations with 0 to 9 employees, to 42% for services with 100 to 249 workers.

For presentational purposes, some response choices have been removed. Data are plotted in the middle of the duration of each wave.

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The proportion of trading organizations that expected a decrease in January 2026 was 25%, while the percentage that reported a real decrease in turnover in January 2026 was 31%. The percentage of services expecting turnover to decrease for a specific month ahead of time has stayed significantly lower than the percentage of companies reporting an actual reduction because month considering that April 2022.

However, expectations for turnover to reduce have regularly followed the same trend, as real reported turnover reduces throughout this time. Trading companies were asked what obstacles, if any, were affecting their turnover in early February 2026. Around 3 in 10 (30%) trading businesses reported that financial uncertainty was having an effect on their turnover, which was broadly steady with early January 2026.

This is broadly steady compared to early January 2026 and 2 percentage points down compared to a year ago. For trading businesses with 10 or more workers, cost of labour was the most frequently reported obstacle, at 36%. This was broadly steady compared with early January 2026. Services with 10 to 49 workers were most likely to report expense of labour as a difficulty than organizations with 250 or more employees (37%, compared with 20%). One in 5 (20%) trading services with 10 or more workers suggested that they were not presently experiencing any turnover difficulties in early February 2026. More details on monetary performance, including all response alternatives categorised by industry and size band, are available in our accompanying dataset.