Analyzing Global Trade Outlooks for UK Firms

Trading companies were asked how their turnover in January 2026 compared with December 2025, omitting any seasonal trading. Information are plotted in the middle of the duration of each wave. Almost a third (31%) of trading organizations reported that their turnover had decreased in January 2026 compared to the previous month.

However, the motions are broadly in line with those observed around this time in previous years, with peaks in December followed by little falls in January. The industries with the greatest proportion reporting that turnover reduced in January 2026 were: the accommodation and food service activities market (52%, which is a 21 percentage point increase from December 2025) the other services industry (45%) the arts, home entertainment and leisure industry (40%) Around 16% of trading companies reported that their turnover increased in January 2026, which was a 3 portion point increase compared with December 2025.

For trading services with 10 or more employees, 33% reported that their turnover had actually decreased, which was broadly stable compared to December and January 2025. More than one in 5 (23%) companies reported that their turnover had actually increased, up 2 percentage points compared with December 2025. Typically, the proportion of companies reporting that their turnover increased correlated to the size of the company.

The exception to this was the percentage for businesses with 250 or more staff members, which was 25%, and 5 portion points lower than December 2025 (30%). Trading services were asked how they anticipate their turnover to change in the coming month. This can then be used to anticipate how business's turnover will really alter when that calendar month concludes.

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Patterns in between expected turnover and real turnover have broadly moved in the exact same instructions, the movements for expectations tend to be bigger. Care needs to be taken when interpreting expectations questions, as the workers reacting on behalf of businesses may not have full oversight of all of their company's future expectations.

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More than one in 5 (21%) trading companies expect their turnover to increase in March 2026. This is a 6 percentage point rise from February 2026 but was broadly steady compared to expectations for March 2025 (22%). The percentage of trading services anticipating a boost in January 2026 was 13%, while the proportion that reported a real increase in turnover in January 2026 was 16%, recommending a slight pessimism in services expectations.

However, the patterns have actually broadly followed each other given that the concerns were presented in April 2022. The outcomes for March 2026 follow the pattern from previous years, with the portion of businesses expecting turnover to increase peaking after a decrease in January. Larger organizations were most likely to expect a boost in turnover in March, with the proportion ranging from 20% for businesses with 0 to 9 employees, to 42% for businesses with 100 to 249 employees.

For presentational purposes, some response alternatives have been eliminated. Data are outlined in the middle of the duration of each wave.

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The proportion of trading organizations that anticipated a reduction in January 2026 was 25%, while the proportion that reported an actual decrease in turnover in January 2026 was 31%. The proportion of businesses anticipating turnover to decrease for a specific month ahead of time has stayed significantly lower than the proportion of businesses reporting an actual decline because month because April 2022.

Nevertheless, expectations for turnover to decrease have regularly followed the very same pattern, as actual reported turnover reduces throughout this time. Trading businesses were asked what challenges, if any, were affecting their turnover in early February 2026. Around 3 in 10 (30%) trading businesses reported that economic unpredictability was having an influence on their turnover, which was broadly steady with early January 2026.

This is broadly steady compared with early January 2026 and 2 portion points down compared to a year back. For trading businesses with 10 or more workers, cost of labour was the most frequently reported difficulty, at 36%. This was broadly stable compared to early January 2026. Businesses with 10 to 49 staff members were more most likely to report cost of labour as a challenge than companies with 250 or more workers (37%, compared to 20%). One in five (20%) trading companies with 10 or more staff members suggested that they were not presently experiencing any turnover difficulties in early February 2026. More information on financial efficiency, including all reaction options categorised by industry and size band, are readily available in our accompanying dataset.